COUNTING CARDS
The short version is that I can't imagine spreading Super Blackjack™ without using a continuous shuffling machine (CSM).
When I first developed Super Blackjack™, I was pretty sure the game would need to be dealt with a CSM due to the extra projection from the 4x doubling -- for sure, 10-value cards become a lot stronger than in regular blackjack when you can double for 4x rather than just 1x. That was even before the new version in which we started paying the Ante for blackjack, 6-to-1 for suited blackjack, and 20-to-1 for super blackjack (A♠J♠ or A♠J♣); this only makes the game even more countable given the extra value from blackjack, as well as the extra bonus value from tracking the A♠, J♠, and J♣ cards that make a super blackjack.
For kicks, I asked Charles Mousseau to figure out just how much damage could be done. To test this, Mousseau ran a number of simulations given 6 decks and the dealer hitting soft 17. The table below shows the effect of the removal of a single card in Super Blackjack™ as compared to regular blackjack. The count tag on the right is the counting system used in the final 10-million shoe simulation, and is based on the effect of card removal determined in the previous simulations.
As you can see, the impact of the removal of a single card in Super Blackjack™ is multiples of the effect of removal in regular blackjack.
Super Blackjack™: The Effect of Card Removal
When I first developed Super Blackjack™, I was pretty sure the game would need to be dealt with a CSM due to the extra projection from the 4x doubling -- for sure, 10-value cards become a lot stronger than in regular blackjack when you can double for 4x rather than just 1x. That was even before the new version in which we started paying the Ante for blackjack, 6-to-1 for suited blackjack, and 20-to-1 for super blackjack (A♠J♠ or A♠J♣); this only makes the game even more countable given the extra value from blackjack, as well as the extra bonus value from tracking the A♠, J♠, and J♣ cards that make a super blackjack.
For kicks, I asked Charles Mousseau to figure out just how much damage could be done. To test this, Mousseau ran a number of simulations given 6 decks and the dealer hitting soft 17. The table below shows the effect of the removal of a single card in Super Blackjack™ as compared to regular blackjack. The count tag on the right is the counting system used in the final 10-million shoe simulation, and is based on the effect of card removal determined in the previous simulations.
As you can see, the impact of the removal of a single card in Super Blackjack™ is multiples of the effect of removal in regular blackjack.
Super Blackjack™: The Effect of Card Removal
Card
|
Blackjack
6 Decks, H17* |
Super Blackjack™
6 Decks, H17 |
Count
Tag |
|
J♣
J♠ All Other 10s A♠ All other Aces 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 |
--
-- -0.097% -- -0.084% 0.071% 0.086% 0.117% 0.143% 0.084% 0.038% -0.010% -0.045% |
-0.843%
-0.792% -0.603% -0.833% -0.443% 0.506% 0.510% 0.643% 0.747% 0.390% 0.406% 0.132% -0.130% |
-4
-4 -3 -4 -2 2 2 3 4 2 2 1 -1 |
*From Wizard of Odds, given 6 decks, H17, double on any two cards, DAS, no pair re-splits, and strategy adjustments for changed deck composition
Not surprisingly, the three most valuable cards in the decks are the A♠, J♠, and J♣. What's astonishing is the degree of impact: The removal of a single J♣ off the top of a 6-deck shoe is enough to raise the house edge by 0.843% -- about 10x the impact of removing an ace off the top of a 6-deck shoe in regular blackjack.
You may have noticed that the J♣ is a bit more valuable than the J♠, and in fact slighlty more valuable than even the A♠ needed to make a super blackjack. The reason the J♣ is more valuable than the J♠ deals with combinatorics and suited blackjack, which the J♠ cannot make.
Let's say your first card is the J♣. Catching an ace will yield the following four outcomes:
Now let's say instead you start with the J♠. Now catching an ace will yield the following four outcomes:
That the J♣ is more valuable than the A♠ is likely due to the value of the 10-value cards in the remainder of the game, chiefly in doubling situations.
The table below shows the summary of the 10-million shoe simulation, given six decks, the dealer hitting soft 17, and a 1.5-deck cutoff. In this scenario, the player will have an advantage on 39.3% of hands. If the player is backcounting and only plays on those 39.3% of hands when he has an advantage (also known as "Wonging", in reference to Stanford Wong, who pioneered the technique), the player will have an average edge of 6.7%. And if the player flat bets $100 on those 39.3% of hands, the player will earn $261.75 per hour (assuming the dealer deals 100 hands per hour).
Mousseau notes that a player using this method on a regular 6-deck blackjack game with only a one-deck cutoff (rather than 1.5 decks; using a one-deck cutoff in Super Blackjack™ would significantly raise the win rate) would make $33 per hour, so it's pretty clear that the impact from counting cards in Super Blackjack™ is far higher than in regular blackjack.
Count Sim Summary, 10 Million Shoes (6 Decks, H17, 1.5-Deck Cutoff)
You may have noticed that the J♣ is a bit more valuable than the J♠, and in fact slighlty more valuable than even the A♠ needed to make a super blackjack. The reason the J♣ is more valuable than the J♠ deals with combinatorics and suited blackjack, which the J♠ cannot make.
Let's say your first card is the J♣. Catching an ace will yield the following four outcomes:
- A♠: super blackjack
- A♣: suited blackjack
- A♥: blackjack
- A♦: blackjack
Now let's say instead you start with the J♠. Now catching an ace will yield the following four outcomes:
- A♠: super blackjack
- A♣: blackjack
- A♥: blackjack
- A♦: blackjack
That the J♣ is more valuable than the A♠ is likely due to the value of the 10-value cards in the remainder of the game, chiefly in doubling situations.
The table below shows the summary of the 10-million shoe simulation, given six decks, the dealer hitting soft 17, and a 1.5-deck cutoff. In this scenario, the player will have an advantage on 39.3% of hands. If the player is backcounting and only plays on those 39.3% of hands when he has an advantage (also known as "Wonging", in reference to Stanford Wong, who pioneered the technique), the player will have an average edge of 6.7%. And if the player flat bets $100 on those 39.3% of hands, the player will earn $261.75 per hour (assuming the dealer deals 100 hands per hour).
Mousseau notes that a player using this method on a regular 6-deck blackjack game with only a one-deck cutoff (rather than 1.5 decks; using a one-deck cutoff in Super Blackjack™ would significantly raise the win rate) would make $33 per hour, so it's pretty clear that the impact from counting cards in Super Blackjack™ is far higher than in regular blackjack.
Count Sim Summary, 10 Million Shoes (6 Decks, H17, 1.5-Deck Cutoff)
Hands With Edge
Avg. Edge Per Hand Played (+EV Hands Only) Win Per Hour, $100 Unit |
39.3%
6.7% $261.75 |