BACKGROUND
Ever since Ed Thorpe introduced the first blackjack card counting system in his 1962 classic Beat the Dealer, blackjack has dominated casino table games pits as the game that smart gamblers play. Indeed, the idea that a gambler can walk into a casino and beat a game that wasn’t intended to be beatable – and in a place in which the gambler is not supposed to win – is a romantic one, and one strong enough to power the brand of blackjack for the past five decades. Moreover, even under basic strategy, blackjack has traditionally had a house advantage in the neighborhood of 0.50%, representing the fairest game in the casino for the player who took the time to learn the strategy.
But all of that is changing. In recent years, casino operators have taken the most extreme and final steps to eliminate card counting. For starters, the use of continuous shuffling machines (CSMs) has become more prevalent, eliminating card counting entirely on the tables that employ them. In addition, games in which blackjack pays 6:5 rather than 3:2 have become more commonplace – not only as a single-deck alternative, but also on two-deck and multi-deck shoe games – adding 1.39% to the house advantage.
As a consequence, there is less and less incentive for the modern gambler to learn a complex basic strategy for a game that not only is no longer beatable, but in many cases doesn’t even offer a more favorable house advantage than baccarat or craps, games requiring zero skill. Worse, once you take away card counting, blackjack is fundamentally a flat and boring game.
As a result, the modern gambler has, for the most part, begun to move on from blackjack. At its peak in 2000, there were 3,682 blackjack tables in the state of Nevada, representing 64.4% of units in the state; by 2013, that number was down to 2,704 tables, or 55.0% of units.
Nevada: Blackjack Table Count and Revenue
But all of that is changing. In recent years, casino operators have taken the most extreme and final steps to eliminate card counting. For starters, the use of continuous shuffling machines (CSMs) has become more prevalent, eliminating card counting entirely on the tables that employ them. In addition, games in which blackjack pays 6:5 rather than 3:2 have become more commonplace – not only as a single-deck alternative, but also on two-deck and multi-deck shoe games – adding 1.39% to the house advantage.
As a consequence, there is less and less incentive for the modern gambler to learn a complex basic strategy for a game that not only is no longer beatable, but in many cases doesn’t even offer a more favorable house advantage than baccarat or craps, games requiring zero skill. Worse, once you take away card counting, blackjack is fundamentally a flat and boring game.
As a result, the modern gambler has, for the most part, begun to move on from blackjack. At its peak in 2000, there were 3,682 blackjack tables in the state of Nevada, representing 64.4% of units in the state; by 2013, that number was down to 2,704 tables, or 55.0% of units.
Nevada: Blackjack Table Count and Revenue
Year
|
Units
|
% of Units
|
Revenue
|
% of Revenue
|
|
1985
2000 2013 |
3,049
3,682 2,704 |
80.7%
64.4% 55.0% |
$720.6M
$1.17B $1.09B |
56.3%
38.6% 27.5% |
The one thing for certain is that 6:5 is not a long-term solution. The smart gamblers of yesteryear are avoiding – and will continue to avoid – this version of the game as an abomination of blackjack. Meanwhile, millennials have no incentive to learn the strategy when they can do better simply by betting the pass line in craps. Consequently, if the trend continues to shift towards 6:5, then the overwhelming probability is that the trend will continue to shift away from blackjack entirely – and with no alternative in sight for intelligent people looking for a reasonable gamble.
What blackjack demands is a definitive reimagining and a complete change in profile.
Enter Super Blackjack™.
What blackjack demands is a definitive reimagining and a complete change in profile.
Enter Super Blackjack™.