The current standard definition of hit frequency is incomplete.
By Jeff Hwang
For a given wager in a given game, the widely accepted definition of the term hit frequency is how often a player receives a payoff of any kind. However, while this definition makes sense with regard to single-bet games such as slot machine and most traditional table games, the definition is incomplete with particular regard to table games with multiple betting rounds, including virtually every poker variant aside from Pai Gow.
Why? Because in these games, monetary payoffs are not the only kind of positive reinforcement that keep the player at the table.
There are really two kinds of hit frequency:
1. Payoff frequency
2. Betting frequency (positive bet frequency)
Payoff frequency is the standard definition of hit frequency – how often the player receives a payoff of any kind. This includes net wins, as well as pushes and fractional pays (partial losses, as in slots machines). Win frequency is a the stronger subset of payoff frequency, and refers to how often a player shows a net win.
Betting frequency – or positive bet frequency – is how often the player can make a bet with a positive expectation. Along with payoff frequency, betting frequency is a key driver in variable-ratio reinforcement, which is the psychological principle behind hit frequency (see Variable Ratio Reinforcement).
In general, the lower the overall betting frequency, the less engaged the player will be. And in games with scalable betting, the higher the max-bet frequency – how often the player can bet the maximum as the money favorite – the more engaged the player will be.
The concepts of betting frequency – and especially max-betting frequency – are underappreciated (if not completely unaccounted for) in the current available literature. We’ll break down the concepts of betting frequency and max-bet frequency next, followed by a discussion on win frequency and payoff frequency.
By Jeff Hwang
For a given wager in a given game, the widely accepted definition of the term hit frequency is how often a player receives a payoff of any kind. However, while this definition makes sense with regard to single-bet games such as slot machine and most traditional table games, the definition is incomplete with particular regard to table games with multiple betting rounds, including virtually every poker variant aside from Pai Gow.
Why? Because in these games, monetary payoffs are not the only kind of positive reinforcement that keep the player at the table.
There are really two kinds of hit frequency:
1. Payoff frequency
2. Betting frequency (positive bet frequency)
Payoff frequency is the standard definition of hit frequency – how often the player receives a payoff of any kind. This includes net wins, as well as pushes and fractional pays (partial losses, as in slots machines). Win frequency is a the stronger subset of payoff frequency, and refers to how often a player shows a net win.
Betting frequency – or positive bet frequency – is how often the player can make a bet with a positive expectation. Along with payoff frequency, betting frequency is a key driver in variable-ratio reinforcement, which is the psychological principle behind hit frequency (see Variable Ratio Reinforcement).
In general, the lower the overall betting frequency, the less engaged the player will be. And in games with scalable betting, the higher the max-bet frequency – how often the player can bet the maximum as the money favorite – the more engaged the player will be.
The concepts of betting frequency – and especially max-betting frequency – are underappreciated (if not completely unaccounted for) in the current available literature. We’ll break down the concepts of betting frequency and max-bet frequency next, followed by a discussion on win frequency and payoff frequency.
Betting Frequency and Payoff Frequency
| Game Mississippi Stud Ultimate Texas Hold’em Four Card Poker Crazy 4 Poker High Card Flush Caribbean Stud Three Card Poker | Max-Bet Frequency 5.9%* 37.7% 30.7% 18.6% 3.1% -- -- | Total Betting Frequency 68.9%* 80.8% 52.8% 76.5% 67.9% 52.2% 67.4% | Win Frequency 28.6% 46.6% 29.7% 47.3% 44.8% 38.6% 44.9% | Payoff Frequency 38.8% 49.8% 29.7% 47.3% 44.8% 38.6% 45.0% |
Source: Derived from data provided on wizardofodds.com
*Reflects 3rd Street bet only
*Reflects 3rd Street bet only
Next: Betting Frequency and Max-Bet Frequency
Jeff Hwang is President and CEO of High Variance Games LLC. Jeff is also the best-selling author of Pot-Limit Omaha Poker: The Big Play Strategy and the three-volume Advanced Pot-Limit Omaha series.
Jeff Hwang is President and CEO of High Variance Games LLC. Jeff is also the best-selling author of Pot-Limit Omaha Poker: The Big Play Strategy and the three-volume Advanced Pot-Limit Omaha series.
