STRATEGY
In Three Card Stud Triple Draw™, you start with what amounts to a two-card hold'em hand against an up card, and can either fold or make a 1x-3x wager with three cards to come, with the stipulation that you must use both hole cards, while only one of the three community cards (the "triple draw") will be used to complete your three-card hand. It is correct to play about 95% of hands -- meaning you won't be folding much -- while it is also correct to bet the max (3x) on 42% of hands, which is more often than in any other prominent casino poker game. Moreover, it's important to recognize that with three cards to come, the value of drawing hands are magnified.
To illustrate, any suited hand has 11 outs to make a flush; with three cards to come, a suited hand will make a flush 56.0% of the time, making it a favorite both to complete and win the hand. Meanwhile, suited connectors (e.g. 9♥8♥) have 17 outs to make either a straight or flush, and will make a straight or a flush a whopping 80.5% of the time.
The game is essentially to maximize the value of the big drawing hands.
All figures below assume that the dealer's up card is not one of your outs; in that case, the actual completion percentage is slightly lower, but not enough to have a material impact on strategy.
Three Card Stud Triple Draw™: Draw Completion Rates
To illustrate, any suited hand has 11 outs to make a flush; with three cards to come, a suited hand will make a flush 56.0% of the time, making it a favorite both to complete and win the hand. Meanwhile, suited connectors (e.g. 9♥8♥) have 17 outs to make either a straight or flush, and will make a straight or a flush a whopping 80.5% of the time.
The game is essentially to maximize the value of the big drawing hands.
All figures below assume that the dealer's up card is not one of your outs; in that case, the actual completion percentage is slightly lower, but not enough to have a material impact on strategy.
Three Card Stud Triple Draw™: Draw Completion Rates
|
Hand Type
Suited Connectors Suited One-Gappers Suited Hands Connectors One-Gappers Pairs |
Example
J♠10♠ 10♠8♠ 9♠2♠ 8♠7♦ 7♦5♥ A♠A♣ |
Draw
Flush Draw + Open-Ended Straight Draw Flush Draw + Gutshot Flush Draw Open-Ended Straight Draw Gutshot Trips |
Outs
17 14 11 8 4 2 |
Completion %
80.5% 68.4% 56.0% 42.7% 23.0% 12.0% |
One more set of facts to consider:
What this really means is that unless the dealer has an Ace or King up and you have offsuit undercards with no straight potential, you always have a decent chance to win the hand. For starters, the fact that the dealer makes a pair or better on 54.3% of hands also means that the dealer makes Ace-high or less on 45.7% of hands. Meanwhile, any unpaired hand has six outs to make a pair; thus, making any pair will win at least 45.7% of the time (obviously higher pairs will win more often), meaning that any unpaired hand is worth at least in the neighborhood of 3 outs (about half of six outs to make a pair).
Similarly, the fact that the dealer makes King-high or better on 79.9% of hands also means that making Ace-high will win between 20.1% and 31.3% of the time, which means that a 4-out draw to Ace-high is also worth in the neighborhood of 1 out. In addition, though a draw to King-high is clearly worth less than 1 out, it is worth more than zero.
Add it up, and you are rarely in bad shape in Three Card Stud Triple Draw™.
Basic Strategy
Let's start with the basic strategy, which is effectively optimal. Note again that it's correct to play 94.6% of hands and max-bet (3x) on 42.1% of hands, while folding only 5.4% of hands.
Max-Betting (3x) (42.1% of hands)
Max-bet (3x) with:
Folding (5.4% of hands)
It's only correct to fold 5% of hands. In order to fold, the dealer basically needs to have an Ace, King, or Queen up -- the only hand it's correct to fold against a Jack is 52-offsuit -- and you need to have two offsuit undercards with no straight potential. This means you will never fold a suited hand (like 9♠2♠); connectors (like QJ or 76); one-gappers (like KJ or 42); or if you at least match the dealer's up card (like 92 vs. 9, or 52 vs. 5),
Min-Betting (1x) (52.5% of hands)
Min-bet (1x) all other hands.
Advanced Strategy Exceptions
The above strategy is effectively optimal. But if you really want to play perfectly perfect, there are a handful of additional situations in which it is correct to max-bet (3x) rather than min-bet (1x), or fold rather than min-bet (1x). These are borderline decisions -- it makes little difference whether you choose the basic strategy option -- and all of these exceptions depend on whether or not you have a card matching the suit of the dealer's up card, thus partially blocking or not blocking the dealer's ability to make a flush.
In poker, we call this having blockers.
Additional Max-Betting (3x) Hands
Also max-bet (3x) the following unsuited hands, but only if one of your cards matches the suit of the dealer's up card (partially blocking a dealer flush):
Additional Folds
Fold the following the hands if you don't have a card of the dealer's suit in your hand:
- The dealer makes a pair or better on 54.3% of hands.
- The dealer makes Ace-high or better on 68.7% of hands.
- The dealer makes King-high or better on 79.9% of hands.
What this really means is that unless the dealer has an Ace or King up and you have offsuit undercards with no straight potential, you always have a decent chance to win the hand. For starters, the fact that the dealer makes a pair or better on 54.3% of hands also means that the dealer makes Ace-high or less on 45.7% of hands. Meanwhile, any unpaired hand has six outs to make a pair; thus, making any pair will win at least 45.7% of the time (obviously higher pairs will win more often), meaning that any unpaired hand is worth at least in the neighborhood of 3 outs (about half of six outs to make a pair).
Similarly, the fact that the dealer makes King-high or better on 79.9% of hands also means that making Ace-high will win between 20.1% and 31.3% of the time, which means that a 4-out draw to Ace-high is also worth in the neighborhood of 1 out. In addition, though a draw to King-high is clearly worth less than 1 out, it is worth more than zero.
Add it up, and you are rarely in bad shape in Three Card Stud Triple Draw™.
Basic Strategy
Let's start with the basic strategy, which is effectively optimal. Note again that it's correct to play 94.6% of hands and max-bet (3x) on 42.1% of hands, while folding only 5.4% of hands.
Max-Betting (3x) (42.1% of hands)
Max-bet (3x) with:
- Any pair. Any pair should be max-bet (3x). Having an overpair is naturally strong, but even small pairs should be max-bet due to a combination of the fact that the dealer will only make a pair or better on 54.3% of hands, and also that making trips pays 2 to 1.
- Any suited hand. Any suited hand has 11 outs (10 if the dealer has one of your outs) to make a flush with three cards to come, and thus is a favorite to hit. This is before counting other outs, such as any straight potential (connectors and one-gappers), or the value of making a pair, while merely catching an Ace or King may be enough to win at showdown.
- Connectors at least matching the dealer's up card, except 32-offsuit vs. 3. Connectors are open-ended straight draws with eight outs, yielding strong draws particularly when you have two overcards, adding six more outs to an overpair. It's correct to max-bet (3x) all connectors when you at least match the dealer's up card, meaning it's correct to max-bet (3x) KQo vs. K or less, down to 54-offsuit vs. 5 or less, and even 32-offsuit vs. 2. The only exception to that rule is 32-offsuit vs. 3, which should be min-bet (1x).
- JTo vs. K. This is the only matchup in which it is always correct to max-bet (3x) with offsuit undercards.
- The top one-gappers. One-gappers have a 4-out gutshot. Max-bet (3x):
- KJo vs. K or less
- QTo vs. T or less
- J9o vs. 8 or less
- Any Ace-high hand with straight potential (specifically any AK, AQ, A2, A3), or with a kicker at least matching the dealer's up card. The stronger Ace-high hands should also be max-bet. This means any Ace-high hand with straight potential, specifically AK, AQ, A2, and A3, all of which have 4-out straight draws; and also any Ace-high hand in which your kicker at least matches the dealer's up card (e.g. A6o vs. 6 or less, AJo vs. a Jack or less).
Folding (5.4% of hands)
It's only correct to fold 5% of hands. In order to fold, the dealer basically needs to have an Ace, King, or Queen up -- the only hand it's correct to fold against a Jack is 52-offsuit -- and you need to have two offsuit undercards with no straight potential. This means you will never fold a suited hand (like 9♠2♠); connectors (like QJ or 76); one-gappers (like KJ or 42); or if you at least match the dealer's up card (like 92 vs. 9, or 52 vs. 5),
- Against a dealer Ace, fold:
- K4-offsuit (K4o) down to K2o
- Q8o down to Q2o
- Any two offsuit cards Jack-high or lower, without straight potential (i.e. you should fold J8o but not J9o, because J9o is a one-gapper with a gutshot, while J8o cannot make a straight)
- Against a dealer King, fold:
- T2o
- Any two offsuit cards 9-high or less, without straight potential
- Against a dealer Queen, fold:
- If you have specifically 82o, or two offsuit cards 7 or lower with no straight potential (74o, 73o, 72o, 63o, 62o, 52o).
- Fold 52o vs. J
Min-Betting (1x) (52.5% of hands)
Min-bet (1x) all other hands.
Advanced Strategy Exceptions
The above strategy is effectively optimal. But if you really want to play perfectly perfect, there are a handful of additional situations in which it is correct to max-bet (3x) rather than min-bet (1x), or fold rather than min-bet (1x). These are borderline decisions -- it makes little difference whether you choose the basic strategy option -- and all of these exceptions depend on whether or not you have a card matching the suit of the dealer's up card, thus partially blocking or not blocking the dealer's ability to make a flush.
In poker, we call this having blockers.
Additional Max-Betting (3x) Hands
Also max-bet (3x) the following unsuited hands, but only if one of your cards matches the suit of the dealer's up card (partially blocking a dealer flush):
- QJo vs. A
- T9o vs. K or Q
- 98o vs. J
- 87o vs. T
Additional Folds
Fold the following the hands if you don't have a card of the dealer's suit in your hand:
- 94o down to 92o, and, 85o down to 83o vs. Q
- 73o, 72o, 63o, and 62o vs. J
- 72o, 63o, 62o, and 52o vs. T
- 63o and 62o vs. 9
- 62o vs. 8
