STRATEGY
Super Pai Gow™ is a two-stage game: It is a bet-sizing game before the draw, and a hand-setting game after it. Under theoretically perfect play, the adj. house advantage is cut down to 1.14% per unit wagered -- half that of regular pai gow and its most popular commission-free variants.
Betting Before the Draw: The Basics
There are 22,321 distinct four-card starting hands in Super Pai Gow™. The pre-draw betting strategy is perfectly solved -- theoretically -- though actual perfect play is not likely achievable, because the line between min-betting (1x) and max-betting (4x) often comes down to the composition of suits in your hand.
1. You should basically never fold. Out of the 22,321 starting hands in Super Pai Gow™, it is correct to fold exactly one -- 8-7-3-2 badugi (all different suits), which comes up once every 12,201 hands. You are not likely to ever encounter 8-7-3-2 badugi, and even then it is likely an extremely small mistake at worst to play it.
2. Max-bet (4x) before the draw on 14.1% of hands, including:
3. Min-bet (1x) everything else (85.9% of hands). It is never correct to bet 2x or 3x -- you are either betting the minimum (1x) or the maximum (4x), or folding 8-7-3-2 badugi.
What really needs to be understood is that the value in betting 4x pre-draw is dependent largely on the ability to scoop both the High and the Low -- the Ante always plays (it pays 1 to 1 on any push), but the 1x-4x Draw wager only pays when you scoop. The key implication is that while a hand like 9♠8♠7♠6♠ (an open-ended straight draw with a flush draw for high) looks really strong, it's only strong for the high side of the pot -- though 9♠8♠7♠6♠ is a favorite to make a straight or flush and be a strong favorite for the high, it needs to make the straight or flush (or perhaps trips, two pair, or a running big pair) and also draw something to show down for the low -- and as such is a min-betting (1x) hand.
Thus, the 4x hands tend to favor strong high hands or hands likely to create two-way hands. For example, trips alone will win the high 70%-80% of the time, and can draw an ace or another pair to show down for low. Two pair is already enough to show down both ways, and can improve. Pairs Q-Q-x-x and lower often depend on kickers -- for example, having an ace will favor a 4x max-bet in the medium and higher pairs (virtually all 7-7-x-x+ with an ace), as you already have some showdown value with a chance to improve.
Optimal Betting Frequencies: Before the Draw
Max-bet (4x): 14.1%
Min-bet (1x): 85.9%
Fold: 0.0%
Betting Before the Draw: The Basics
There are 22,321 distinct four-card starting hands in Super Pai Gow™. The pre-draw betting strategy is perfectly solved -- theoretically -- though actual perfect play is not likely achievable, because the line between min-betting (1x) and max-betting (4x) often comes down to the composition of suits in your hand.
1. You should basically never fold. Out of the 22,321 starting hands in Super Pai Gow™, it is correct to fold exactly one -- 8-7-3-2 badugi (all different suits), which comes up once every 12,201 hands. You are not likely to ever encounter 8-7-3-2 badugi, and even then it is likely an extremely small mistake at worst to play it.
2. Max-bet (4x) before the draw on 14.1% of hands, including:
- Two pair or better except specifically 3-3-2-2. This includes trips and quads. Min-bet (1x) 3-3-2-2.
- Any A-A-x-x hand
- Almost all K-K-x-x hands. Min-bet (1x) with specifically K-K-7-2, K-K-6-2, K-K-5-2, K-K-4-2, K-K-3-2, unless you also have a three flush (in which case max-bet 4x)
- Other stuff we break down later below. Including Q-Q-x-x and J-J-x-x and smaller pairs depending on kickers and suits; a variety of four-flush hands typically involving either an ace or a bunch of high cards; and a large variety of Joker hands.
3. Min-bet (1x) everything else (85.9% of hands). It is never correct to bet 2x or 3x -- you are either betting the minimum (1x) or the maximum (4x), or folding 8-7-3-2 badugi.
What really needs to be understood is that the value in betting 4x pre-draw is dependent largely on the ability to scoop both the High and the Low -- the Ante always plays (it pays 1 to 1 on any push), but the 1x-4x Draw wager only pays when you scoop. The key implication is that while a hand like 9♠8♠7♠6♠ (an open-ended straight draw with a flush draw for high) looks really strong, it's only strong for the high side of the pot -- though 9♠8♠7♠6♠ is a favorite to make a straight or flush and be a strong favorite for the high, it needs to make the straight or flush (or perhaps trips, two pair, or a running big pair) and also draw something to show down for the low -- and as such is a min-betting (1x) hand.
Thus, the 4x hands tend to favor strong high hands or hands likely to create two-way hands. For example, trips alone will win the high 70%-80% of the time, and can draw an ace or another pair to show down for low. Two pair is already enough to show down both ways, and can improve. Pairs Q-Q-x-x and lower often depend on kickers -- for example, having an ace will favor a 4x max-bet in the medium and higher pairs (virtually all 7-7-x-x+ with an ace), as you already have some showdown value with a chance to improve.
Optimal Betting Frequencies: Before the Draw
Max-bet (4x): 14.1%
Min-bet (1x): 85.9%
Fold: 0.0%
Hand Setting Strategy
For the most part, your hand setting strategy should be relatively straight-forward coming from pai gow. The two main considerations are:
1. The dealer is going to have a bigger hand than in regular pai gow. With 8 starting cards rather than 7, the dealer's hands are going to be stronger than in regular pai gow. In regular pai gow, you only need Ax+ (any ace or better) to be a favorite for the low hand, and QQxxx+ (a pair of queens or better) to be favorite for high. but in Super Pai Gow™, you need AK+ to be a favorite for low and KK764+ to be a favorite for high.
2. You only need to push in order to win. In Super Pai Gow™, if you push, the Ante pays. The implication here is that you might in some cases be more inclined to play a strong one-way hand and play for the split, rather than play a mediocre two-way hand
Adjust your strategy accordingly.
Hand-Setting Decisions: The Maximum Sum-of-Percentiles Strategy
According to the great Charles Mousseau (who did the initial math on this game), the best way to approach hand-setting decisions is to simply choose the combination of hands that maximize the sum combined winning percentages.
For example, let's say you hold A-A-K-K-Q-J-10 with no flush possibility. Your two choices are to play A-A (100% winning percentage) and K-K-Q-J-10 (54.1%), or play A-K (52.8%) and A-K-Q-J-10 (92.8%). Splitting the two pair yields a 154.1% combined sum; playing A-K with the straight only gets to 145.6%. Thus, the best play using this strategy would be to split the A-A and K-K-x-x-x rather than play A-K with the straight.
And in cases where the decisions are close -- say, two choices both yielding 130% -- the play would be to choose the option with the bigger spread (for example 90% + 40% vs 70% + 60%) and effectively play the stronger one-way hand to maximize your chances of splitting.
According to Mousseau, simply following this strategy is enough to get to about 0.6% on the base unit away from optimal strategy. Moreover, "Most of the significant exceptions involve keeping two pair together with weak tops, keeping trip aces together on the bottom with a KQ-type top," and for hands that can play a straight or flush (for example), to play the flush and maximize the high hand instead of the low.
The win percentages are presented below. Note that for the high hands, the minimum win percentage for each hand range is presented. For example, a straight will win at least 81.0% of the time, but the actual range is 81.0% for the lowest straight (6-5-4-3-2) up to 92.8% for the Broadway (A-K-Q-J-T). Meanwhile, the value of ace-high is relatively broad -- while the lowest ace-high hand will win only 2.1% of the time, A-K-Q-J-9 will win 6.2% of the time, which is meaningfully stronger though still weak.
Hand Win Percentages
For the most part, your hand setting strategy should be relatively straight-forward coming from pai gow. The two main considerations are:
1. The dealer is going to have a bigger hand than in regular pai gow. With 8 starting cards rather than 7, the dealer's hands are going to be stronger than in regular pai gow. In regular pai gow, you only need Ax+ (any ace or better) to be a favorite for the low hand, and QQxxx+ (a pair of queens or better) to be favorite for high. but in Super Pai Gow™, you need AK+ to be a favorite for low and KK764+ to be a favorite for high.
2. You only need to push in order to win. In Super Pai Gow™, if you push, the Ante pays. The implication here is that you might in some cases be more inclined to play a strong one-way hand and play for the split, rather than play a mediocre two-way hand
Adjust your strategy accordingly.
Hand-Setting Decisions: The Maximum Sum-of-Percentiles Strategy
According to the great Charles Mousseau (who did the initial math on this game), the best way to approach hand-setting decisions is to simply choose the combination of hands that maximize the sum combined winning percentages.
For example, let's say you hold A-A-K-K-Q-J-10 with no flush possibility. Your two choices are to play A-A (100% winning percentage) and K-K-Q-J-10 (54.1%), or play A-K (52.8%) and A-K-Q-J-10 (92.8%). Splitting the two pair yields a 154.1% combined sum; playing A-K with the straight only gets to 145.6%. Thus, the best play using this strategy would be to split the A-A and K-K-x-x-x rather than play A-K with the straight.
And in cases where the decisions are close -- say, two choices both yielding 130% -- the play would be to choose the option with the bigger spread (for example 90% + 40% vs 70% + 60%) and effectively play the stronger one-way hand to maximize your chances of splitting.
According to Mousseau, simply following this strategy is enough to get to about 0.6% on the base unit away from optimal strategy. Moreover, "Most of the significant exceptions involve keeping two pair together with weak tops, keeping trip aces together on the bottom with a KQ-type top," and for hands that can play a straight or flush (for example), to play the flush and maximize the high hand instead of the low.
The win percentages are presented below. Note that for the high hands, the minimum win percentage for each hand range is presented. For example, a straight will win at least 81.0% of the time, but the actual range is 81.0% for the lowest straight (6-5-4-3-2) up to 92.8% for the Broadway (A-K-Q-J-T). Meanwhile, the value of ace-high is relatively broad -- while the lowest ace-high hand will win only 2.1% of the time, A-K-Q-J-9 will win 6.2% of the time, which is meaningfully stronger though still weak.
Hand Win Percentages
Low Hand
AA KK JJ TT 99 88 77 66 55 44 33 22 AK AQ AJ AT A2-A9 KQ KJ KT K2-K9 QJ QT Q2-Q9 JT J2-J9 T9 T2-T8 98 |
Win Percentage
100.0% 96.6% 94.0% 91.4% 88.6% 85.7% 82.5% 79.1% 75.5% 71.6% 67.5% 63.0% 58.1% 52.3% 45.0% 39.8% 36.5% 31.9% - 34.6% 31..9% 26.0% 22.3% 17.8% - 20.1% 17.8% 13.7% 9.0% - 11.4% 9.0% 4.3% - 6.7% 4.3% 2.2% - 3.2% 2.2% |
High Hand
Five Aces Royal Flush Straight Flush Quads Full House Flush Straight Trips Two Pair AA KK JJ TT 99 88 77 66 55 44 33 22 Ace High King High Queen High |
Minimum Win Percentage
100.0% 100.0% 99.9% 99.6% 98.9% 92.8% 81.0% 69.6% 63.5% 55.7% 49.5% 43.7% 38.3% 33.4% 28.8% 24.5% 20.6% 17.1% 13.9% 11.0% 8.4% 6.2% 2.1% 0.6% 0.1% |
Betting Before the Draw: Complete Strategy
What follows is effectively the complete pre-draw betting max-betting (4x) strategy. The max-betting (4x) hands fall into three basic categories of hands:
Pair Hands
It is correct to max-bet (4x) with any two pair or better, except specifically 3-3-2-2. It is also correct to max-bet (4x) with any A-A-x-x hand, and almost all K-K-x-x hands. The other pairs from Q-Q-x-x down to 4-4-x-x require a bit more detail, but as a general rule, the smaller the pair, the more important it is to have bigger sidecards and/or a three-flush. All pairs 7-7-x-x and below require at least an ace in order for it to be correct to max-bet (4x).
What follows is effectively the complete pre-draw betting max-betting (4x) strategy. The max-betting (4x) hands fall into three basic categories of hands:
- Pair hands
- Four-flush hands
- Joker hands
Pair Hands
It is correct to max-bet (4x) with any two pair or better, except specifically 3-3-2-2. It is also correct to max-bet (4x) with any A-A-x-x hand, and almost all K-K-x-x hands. The other pairs from Q-Q-x-x down to 4-4-x-x require a bit more detail, but as a general rule, the smaller the pair, the more important it is to have bigger sidecards and/or a three-flush. All pairs 7-7-x-x and below require at least an ace in order for it to be correct to max-bet (4x).
Hand Type
|
Exceptions
|
Two pair or better
A-A-x-x K-K-x-x QQ Hands Q-Q-x-x with A or K kicker Q-Q-J-5+ Q-Q-x-x with three flush or any two cards six or higher JJ Hands J-J-x-x with A or K kicker QJJ6+ QJJ5 with three flush or suited Q-5 QJJ2 to QJJ4 with three flush JJT9 and JJT8 JJT7 and JJT6 with three flush TT Hands All TTAx TTK7+ TTK6 except TTK6 badugi TTK2, TTK3, and TTK4 with a three flush TTQJ TTQ9 except badugi TTQ7 and TTQ8 with a three flush TTJ9 with three flush 99 Hands Any 99Ax 99KQ, 99KJ, 99KT all 99K6, 99K7, and 99K8 with a three flush 99QJ, 99QT, and 99JT with a three flush 88 Hands Any 88Ax 88KQ with a three flush or suited KQ 88KJ and 88KT with a three flush 77Ax 77A6+ (77 with A6 or better) 77A5 and 77A4 except badugi 77A3 and 77A2 with a three flush or suited Ace 66Ax 66 with AT+ (AT66, AJ66, AQ66, AK66) 66A9 with three flush or suited A9 66 + A3-A7 with a three flush 55Ax AK55 all AT55, AJ55, and AQ55 with a three flush AK44 AK44 with a three flush |
3-3-2-2
KK82, KK72, KK62, KK52, KK42, and KK32 unless with a three-flush KK92 badugi KK43 unless with three-flush or suited 4-3 |
Four-Flush Hands
Four-flush hands have a flush draw with three cards to come, and are likely to make a strong high hand. As noted earlier, it's important to realize that the value in betting the max (4x) is dependent on the ability to scoop both sides of the pot -- this means, not only do you need to make a high hand, but you also need to make a strong enough low hand to show down in order to justify making the max bet, because the Draw wager only comes into play when you scoop (or lose). Consequently, the four-flush max-betting hands almost all contain either at least an ace or a bunch of high cards.
This includes all A-K-x-x four-flush hands except AK72, AK62, AK52, AK42, and AK32; and all AQJx and all AQTx four-flush hands (plus AQ96 four-flush) except specifically AQJ2 and AQT2. Notice that all of the exceptions contain a deuce -- this is likely because whenever the dealer has a hand containing a lone deuce, the dealer is likely to discard it, meaning that you are already at a disadvantage.
Four-flush hands have a flush draw with three cards to come, and are likely to make a strong high hand. As noted earlier, it's important to realize that the value in betting the max (4x) is dependent on the ability to scoop both sides of the pot -- this means, not only do you need to make a high hand, but you also need to make a strong enough low hand to show down in order to justify making the max bet, because the Draw wager only comes into play when you scoop (or lose). Consequently, the four-flush max-betting hands almost all contain either at least an ace or a bunch of high cards.
This includes all A-K-x-x four-flush hands except AK72, AK62, AK52, AK42, and AK32; and all AQJx and all AQTx four-flush hands (plus AQ96 four-flush) except specifically AQJ2 and AQT2. Notice that all of the exceptions contain a deuce -- this is likely because whenever the dealer has a hand containing a lone deuce, the dealer is likely to discard it, meaning that you are already at a disadvantage.
Hand Type
|
Exceptions
|
A-K-x-x
AQJx, AQTx, and AQ96 Axxx with all four cards seven and higher (e.g. A987, AJ97, AQ98) Any four cards 9 and higher (e.g. KQJT, KQT9, QJT9) JT98 and A543 |
AK72, AK62, AK52, AK42, AK32
AQJ2, AQT2 |
Joker Hands
Not surprisingly, the joker is a powerfully versatile card in Super Pai Gow™, though perhaps not as powerful as you'd initially think -- there are a large variety of types of Joker+ hands you should max-bet (4x) with, but you still need to build hands that can scoop, and so there are still standards that need to be addressed.
Note that it is correct to max-bet (4x) any joker hand with a pair, except a joker with 22 and an 8 kicker or lower, and also 33 with a 2 or 4 kicker. It is also correct to max-bet (4x) with any joker hand with a three flush, except a joker with a 3-2 plus a T, 9, 8, or 7 (a 6, 5, or 4 would give you a straight draw with the joker).
Hand Type
|
Exceptions
|
Joker + A-x-x
Joker + Pair Joker + Three flush Joker +
|
223, 224, 225, 226, 227, 228, and 332, and also 334 badugi T32, 932, 832, 732 |