By Jeff Hwang
Most poker table games start with at least one initial forced bet – generally the ante – and have at least one bet-or-fold betting round. As we’ve noted, this forced bet is essentially dead money, and all wagers that come after are made in attempt to recover the lost value of the ante.
In these games, there are two basic kinds of bets:
Pot odds or ante recovery bets are simply pot odds plays where it’s correct to bet because of the money you already put in the pot, namely the initial ante (and sometimes additional wagers in games with multiple betting rounds after the ante, such as Mississippi Stud). These are situations in which you have too much hand to fold, but not enough to bet the max. This is similar to calling for value in poker.
Offensive bets are bets made as the money favorite. These are situations in which you have the advantage, and are looking to put as much money as possible on the table (a.k.a. bet the crap out of it). These are bets of aggression, similar to betting and raising in poker.
In blackjack, for example, doubling and most pair splitting situations are offensive betting situations in which you have the advantage and are looking to put more money on the table as the favorite (splitting 8-8 against a dealer 9 or 10 are defensive, pot-odds situations in which are splitting to lose less money rather than to win more). These situations are often far more exciting than hitting and standing, or even simply getting dealt blackjack, and provide reinforcement that keeps the player engaged – even when the player loses.
Card counting in blackjack provides an even clearer example. When you are counting cards, the game is essentially to wait for situations in which the count turns favorable, and then bet as much as possible when you have the advantage.
Anybody who’s spent much time counting cards knows that there’s little more boring than counting down a six-deck shoe. But when the count turns sufficiently positive, these situations are offensive betting situations (effectively max-bet situations) in which the player can become aggressive, providing reinforcement and keeping the player engaged (that blackjack can be beaten in this manner obviously helps).
Let’s look at some poker games.
Three Card Poker (67.4% overall betting frequency)
High Card Flush (67.9% overall betting frequency)
Crazy 4 Poker (76.5% overall betting frequency)
Ultimate Texas Hold’em (80.8% overall betting frequency)
Three Card Poker is a perfectly flat game with a fixed bet size (1x the ante) that includes a mix of offensive and pot odds bets. High Card Flush is also a flat game by design; the player can bet 2x with a five-card flush or 3x with a six- or seven-card flush, but those situations only occur on 3.1% of hands combined.
But betting frequency and max-betting frequency are the dominant features in Crazy 4 Poker and Ultimate Texas Hold’em, both of which were designed by Roger Snow of Shuffle Master (now a part of Scientific Games). In Crazy 4 Poker, the player can play 76.5% of hands – a higher betting frequency than in either Three Card Poker or High Card Flush – while making the maximum 3x wager on 18.6% (when the player has a pair of aces or better). In Ultimate Texas Hold’em (UTH), the player can bet 80.8% of hands, while making the maximum 4x wager pre-flop on a whopping 37.7% of hands.
In both games, the ability to play a lot of hands is a strong selling point; but even stronger is the frequency with which the player can find hands with which to bet the max.
Certainly there are tradeoffs. In both Crazy 4 Poker and Ultimate Texas Hold’em, the player must start with two initial wagers. Consequently, the betting is not quite as scalable as it sounds – the maximum 4x wager in UTH is only 2x the initial two-unit starting bet, while the maximum 3x wager in Crazy 4 Poker is only 1.5x the initial two-unit wager. But such are the tradeoffs that often must be made in order to acquire certain favorable characteristics when designing – and playing – these games.
Most poker table games start with at least one initial forced bet – generally the ante – and have at least one bet-or-fold betting round. As we’ve noted, this forced bet is essentially dead money, and all wagers that come after are made in attempt to recover the lost value of the ante.
In these games, there are two basic kinds of bets:
- Pot odds/ante recovery bets (min-bet)
- Offensive bets (max-bet)
Pot odds or ante recovery bets are simply pot odds plays where it’s correct to bet because of the money you already put in the pot, namely the initial ante (and sometimes additional wagers in games with multiple betting rounds after the ante, such as Mississippi Stud). These are situations in which you have too much hand to fold, but not enough to bet the max. This is similar to calling for value in poker.
Offensive bets are bets made as the money favorite. These are situations in which you have the advantage, and are looking to put as much money as possible on the table (a.k.a. bet the crap out of it). These are bets of aggression, similar to betting and raising in poker.
In blackjack, for example, doubling and most pair splitting situations are offensive betting situations in which you have the advantage and are looking to put more money on the table as the favorite (splitting 8-8 against a dealer 9 or 10 are defensive, pot-odds situations in which are splitting to lose less money rather than to win more). These situations are often far more exciting than hitting and standing, or even simply getting dealt blackjack, and provide reinforcement that keeps the player engaged – even when the player loses.
Card counting in blackjack provides an even clearer example. When you are counting cards, the game is essentially to wait for situations in which the count turns favorable, and then bet as much as possible when you have the advantage.
Anybody who’s spent much time counting cards knows that there’s little more boring than counting down a six-deck shoe. But when the count turns sufficiently positive, these situations are offensive betting situations (effectively max-bet situations) in which the player can become aggressive, providing reinforcement and keeping the player engaged (that blackjack can be beaten in this manner obviously helps).
Let’s look at some poker games.
Three Card Poker (67.4% overall betting frequency)
- Mixed: Bet 1x Q-6-4+ (67.4% of hands)
- Fixed betting size, including a mix of offensive and pot odds plays merged into the one bet size
High Card Flush (67.9% overall betting frequency)
- Offensive: Bet 3x with six- or seven-card flush (0.2% of hands)
- Offensive: Bet 2x with five-card flush (2.9% of hands)
- Pot odds/Mixed: Bet 1x with J-9-6+ (9-7-5 to J-9-5 is borderline) (64.9% of hands); some of these bets (probably at least some of the 4-card flushes) are likely offensive bets
Crazy 4 Poker (76.5% overall betting frequency)
- Offensive: Max-bet A-A-x-x+ (18.6% of hands)
- Pot odds: Min-bet K-Q-8-4+ (57.9% of hands)
Ultimate Texas Hold’em (80.8% overall betting frequency)
- Offensive: Max-bet (4x) pre-flop with 33+, any ace, K2s+, K5o+, Q6s+, Q8o+, J8s+, JT (37.7% of hands)
- Offensive: Bet 2x on flop on 21.3% of hands
- Pot odds: Bet 1x on river on 21.8% of hands
Three Card Poker is a perfectly flat game with a fixed bet size (1x the ante) that includes a mix of offensive and pot odds bets. High Card Flush is also a flat game by design; the player can bet 2x with a five-card flush or 3x with a six- or seven-card flush, but those situations only occur on 3.1% of hands combined.
But betting frequency and max-betting frequency are the dominant features in Crazy 4 Poker and Ultimate Texas Hold’em, both of which were designed by Roger Snow of Shuffle Master (now a part of Scientific Games). In Crazy 4 Poker, the player can play 76.5% of hands – a higher betting frequency than in either Three Card Poker or High Card Flush – while making the maximum 3x wager on 18.6% (when the player has a pair of aces or better). In Ultimate Texas Hold’em (UTH), the player can bet 80.8% of hands, while making the maximum 4x wager pre-flop on a whopping 37.7% of hands.
In both games, the ability to play a lot of hands is a strong selling point; but even stronger is the frequency with which the player can find hands with which to bet the max.
Certainly there are tradeoffs. In both Crazy 4 Poker and Ultimate Texas Hold’em, the player must start with two initial wagers. Consequently, the betting is not quite as scalable as it sounds – the maximum 4x wager in UTH is only 2x the initial two-unit starting bet, while the maximum 3x wager in Crazy 4 Poker is only 1.5x the initial two-unit wager. But such are the tradeoffs that often must be made in order to acquire certain favorable characteristics when designing – and playing – these games.
Betting Frequency and Max-Bet Frequency
| Game Ultimate Texas Hold’em Four Card Poker Crazy 4 Poker Mississippi Stud* High Card Flush Caribbean Stud Three Card Poker | Max-Bet Frequency 37.7% 30.7% 18.6% 5.9% 3.1% -- -- | Total Betting Frequency 80.8% 52.8% 76.5% 68.9% 67.9% 52.2% 67.4% |
Source: Derived from data provided on wizardofodds.com
*Reflects 3rd Street betting only
*Reflects 3rd Street betting only
Mississippi Stud
The numbers for Mississippi Stud in the table reflect 3rd Street betting only. In Mississippi Stud, it is correct to play 68.9% of hands on the 3rd Street wager (the first two cards), and bet the maximum on all pairs, representing 5.9% of hands. Based on data published on the Wizard of Odds Mississippi Stud page:
Next: Win Frequency and Payoff Frequency
Jeff Hwang is President and CEO of High Variance Games LLC. Jeff is also the best-selling author of Pot-Limit Omaha Poker: The Big Play Strategy and the three-volume Advanced Pot-Limit Omaha series.
The numbers for Mississippi Stud in the table reflect 3rd Street betting only. In Mississippi Stud, it is correct to play 68.9% of hands on the 3rd Street wager (the first two cards), and bet the maximum on all pairs, representing 5.9% of hands. Based on data published on the Wizard of Odds Mississippi Stud page:
- The player is correct to bet the 3x max on all three betting rounds on 4.1% of hands.
- The player is correct to make a 3x wager on at least one betting round on 21.2% of hands.
- The player is correct to play 68.9% of hands on 3rd Street (technically it’s 2nd street, but called the 3rd Street wager), but will fold later in the hand on 12.5% of hands, thus getting to showdown on 56.4% of hands.
Next: Win Frequency and Payoff Frequency
Jeff Hwang is President and CEO of High Variance Games LLC. Jeff is also the best-selling author of Pot-Limit Omaha Poker: The Big Play Strategy and the three-volume Advanced Pot-Limit Omaha series.
